The Asymmetric Threat from Islamic State
Islamic State (IS) continues to lose territory in Iraq and Syria. In Iraq this amounts to nearly fifty percent of the ground they once held including the key cities of Ramadi and Fallujah. In Syria they have lost around twenty percent and Raqqa itself is now under threat from a coalition of anti IS forces. As well as ground, they have lost valuable oil revenue and conditions inside IS held areas are deteriorating with shortages of basic supplies becoming common. If Raqqa falls IS will lose not only its symbolic capital and centre of leadership but its main logistics base. So how will IS respond to this change in fortune?
When conducting counter insurgency operations in Afghanistan we used to talk about squeezing the balloon. You put pressure on the Taliban in one district and they would simply withdraw only to re-emerge elsewhere. And so it went on like a balloon half filled with air. We would bring pressure to bear in one tactical space but the Taliban threat would simply be displaced to another as we lacked the resources to apply pressure equally across the whole of Helmand Province.